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October 07, 2007

The Problem With Upsets in College Football

Everyone loves a good upset. It's a whole "David and Goliath" thing that gets people excited.

I'm not a big SC fan, and I certainly don't care for Michigan or Wisconsin or any other top-10 team that's gotten trampled by an unranked team this season.

The problem with upsets is that they're bad for college football. The entire point of the ranking system is lost when lots of big upsets happen. For a ranking system to make sense, higher ranked teams should win most of the time. That's the whole point. When a big upset happens, it means the rankers were wrong.

Stanford beat USC yesterday, but I don't think they beat the number two team in the nation. They beat the team that the pollsters thought was the number two team. Clearly, the pollsters were wrong. If USC really was the number two team in the nation, they wouldn't have lost to Stanford.

I'm not saying that it would be good for college football if upsets never happened. But the whole point of an upset is that people would never have predicted that it would happen. If upsets happen all the time, then they stop being upsets.

Look... it would be -- in the long run -- good for the game if Illinois won the Big 10 this year, or if SC didn't make a major bowl. Stuff like that is what makes everything exciting. But in the short run, the entirety of NCAA football is based on this complex ranking system. If that system is unreliable, then NCAA football is in bad shape. (Of course, if all this pushes the NCAA to re-jigger the whole system -- and do away with the BCS -- then that would be great. But that's not gonna happen. The BCS is here to stay as long as the big conferences and the big schools keep making money off if it.)

January 10, 2007

He May Be Looney Tunes, But I Love It

Yahoo! Sports' Charles Robinson says that the Bears are going to the Superbowl.

Unlike last season or in 2001, this has been the best team in the conference from start to finish … even with the bumps along the way. It has secured home-field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl. The coaching staff has remained intact. The roster added talent in the offseason and lost none. And Grossman – for better or worse – has been healthy all year long. If this team can't win a conference championship now, when will it?

From Charles Robinson's lips to God's ears.

January 08, 2007

Quote of the Day

"You're the undefeated team and the number one team in the nation... Why would you play a song about a sinking ship?"

- Ari, expressing disgust at the Ohio State Marching Band playing the stupid Titanic theme song during halftime

December 08, 2006

You Win Some, You Lose Some: Existential Musings on Fantasy Sports

I play in an annual set of fantasy sports leagues (baseball, football, sometimes basketball) with a group of my cousins. It's a lot of fun, and its a good way for us to all keep in touch.

Recently, in the football league, my cousin Mike posted the following message (in response to my cousin Jeff's lament about scoring lots of points but still missing the playoffs):

The system is seriously flawed. Too much success (or lack of) rides on the luck of scheduling. Unlike fantasy hoops, match-ups are tallied on an all-or-nothing basis, meaning you either win or lose on the week. So your team can theoretically have an outstanding week, say score 140 fantasy points, greater than eight of the nine other teams in your league. However, you were pitted against the one team that outscored you on the week. Meanwhile, another team wins after a lousy performance, 75-68. In the end, you and the team that scored 75 have an equal 0-1 record.

Sure, Mike... "The system is seriously flawed." Some of us got screwed by scheduling. Some by injuries. Sometimes, your star receiver doesn't get very many catches because the quarterback's left pinky is sore because he bumped it on his nightstand, and it feels better for him to throw to the left.

Football is the least predictable fantasy sport. In comparison to baseball or basketball, it has the shortest season, there are more unpredictable variables (more injuries, more players on the field, more offensive and defensive quirks, etc.), and its really easy to get lucky or unlucky in ways that will mess up your whole season.

But in the end, I think this is about more than fantasy sports.

Life is unpredictable.

You think fantasy football is seriously flawed?

Life is seriously flawed. Nice guys finish last. Bad things happen to good people. Sometimes, the most capable guy doesn't get the job. The best laid plans, and all that.

Sports are fun because they're unpredictable (just ask the UCLA football team). If things always worked out the way they should on paper, then fantasy sports would be boring.

Look... I think I drafted a pretty good team. And I ended up in last place. That's the way it goes. But that's why I'm going to play next year. Sometimes, even Miggety wins a league.

And that means I always have a chance, too.

If you want to play a game where luck and chance play no part, then take up chess.

October 17, 2006

Quote of the Day

"In the NFL, when you have six turnovers, you lose. If you're fortunate enough to win, somebody upstairs is looking out for you."

- Bears defensive end Alex Brown

September 10, 2006

Quote of the Day

One Fox announcer: "Are the Bears that good or are the Packers that bad?"
Second Fox announcer: "I think that answer is yes."

September 04, 2006

Painful Sports News of the Day

This was really in today's AP Cubs-Pirates recap:

"Cubs C Michael Barrett was still in the hospital Monday morning for a follow-up procedure after having surgery Saturday night to stop bleeding in his scrotum. He is on the 15-day DL after getting hit in the groin area by a foul tip on Saturday."

(Thanks to Eric.)

December 05, 2005

The BCS and Notre Dame Should Go to Hell

Notre Dame (ranked 6th), Georgia (7th), West Virginia (11th), and Florida State (22nd) are playing in BCS bowls. The Ducks of Oregon (ranked 5th) are not playing in a BCS bowl.

I know BCS officials are pinching themselves because the system actually managed to put the One and Two teams in the national championship game. So while there will be an uncontested national championship come January 4, the system is still totally messed up. Florida State simply does not deserve a BCS bowl game. Neither does Westh Virginia. Ultimately, Notre Dame and Georgia also do not belong in BCS games as long as Oregon is out.

This leads me to make three assertions:

1. Clearly, the BCS is not about pitting the best college football teams against each other. If it were, Oregon and Miami (of Florida) would be in the BCS games, and FSU and W.V. would be out. Rather, the BCS is about (a) major NCAA conferences maintaining a stranglehold on lucrative TV contracts; and (b) TV networks getting the highest rated games possible.

2. For the second year in a row, a West Coast team got screwed out of the BCS (although last year, I was very happy about it). This seems to be due to (a) BCS voters' ignorance (or outright dislike) of West Coast schools, and (b) a feeling that Southeastern schools (and Notre Dame) will generate higher TV ratings. Oregon has every right to feel shafted.

3. Notre Dame is obnoxious, and should be stopped. They don't belong to a conference. This means that -- unlike the other seven teams playing in BCS bowls -- they don't have to split a nickel of the BCS money with anyone. They also have their own TV contract that they don't split with anyone. Also, they think that Jesus helps them win football games (or so they said during their pre-USC pep rally... Of course, in the end, if Jesus was on anyone's side that day, it was Matt Leinert). For all these reasons, Notre Dame must be stopped.

Here's how: Colleges have control over their non-conference schedule. So... Other schools should stop playing Notre Dame until they join a conference. How easy would it be to hold on to a lucrative TV contract if you don't play any games against worthwhile opponents? This year, the Irish played USC, Tennessee, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, and Washington. What would happen if all of these schools refuse to put Notre Dame on their schedule? What would it be like if Notre Dame had to play the typewriter maintenance class at the Rocco Globbo School for Women?

Furthermore, Notre Dame should lose its ridiculous BCS rule which automatically puts them into a BCS bowl game as long as they win a certain amount of games. Notre Dame refuses to join a conference because it doesn't want to share with the other children. The other children should stop bending over backwards to give Notre Dame whatever it wants.

July 27, 2005

I'm a Bad, Bad Man

"Contraband items not allowed in the stadium include: glass bottles, cans, weapons, poles, umbrellas, backpacks, 14 inch or larger purses or bags, coolers, thermoses, beachballs, inflatables, banners, signs, flags, use of laser pointers, firecrackers/fireworks, boom boxes, air horns, whistles, musical instruments and pets."

-From the Dodger Stadium A-to-Z Guide, published by the LA Dodgers (emphasis mine)
I went to the Dodger game to night with Ari, Noam, and Jaimie. It was a lot of fun. We had great seats (thanks Joel and Ariella), the Dodgers won, and it was a beautiful night.

I also got a chance to do something I've wanted to do for a long time. A dream came true tonight.

In case you've never been to a Dodger game (or to any baseball stadium where beach balls are common): People bring beach balls to the baseball game. Beach balls are not allowed at the baseball game. People bring them anyway. They sneak them in. Then, they carefully (so as not to get caught by stadium staff) inflate their beach balls. Then, they hit their beach balls into the air. The beach balls bounce around. People hit the beach balls all around the stands. Eventually, an usher notices. He or she comes down the aisle where the ball is bouncing around, and stands there, waiting for the ball to fly by so they can catch it and confiscate it.

I hate beach balls. Three reasons:

1. Beach balls can be very dangerous, or at least very bothersome. If you're sitting close -- like we were tonight -- foul balls come into the stands at high speeds. You need to pay attention. Beach balls are a dangerous distraction. Even if you're sitting far away, a flying beach ball that hits someone who is not paying to the beach ball game could disrupt a well balanced coke or beer, or hit an old lady in the head, or whatever.

2. I came to watch a baseball game. I didn't come to play with your beach ball. Beach balls are not allowed at Dodger Stadium. Beach balls are allowed at the beach. I didn't pay $10 to park, $10 for a ticket, $4 for a coke, $4 for a hot dog, and $5 for a bag of peanuts so that I could be a spectator/participant in your beach ball game. I'm here to watch the baseball game. Keep your beach ball out of my way. I don't want them landing in my lap, landing on the field, or in the stadium at all. [Same goes for the wave: I didn't come here to be part of some giant coordinated movement of people. I came here to watch the ballgame. This is a baseball stadium. If baseball is too boring for you, then don't come. Now sit down and shut up.]

3. Beach balls are stupid. What the hell is the point of this beach ball game, anyway? Hit a beach ball around. Stare at it hoping that it comes near you so you can hit it. Hope that the usher doesn't catch it. If the usher does catch it, boo him for confiscating the beach ball. (It's not like its his job or anything, and it's not like it was unexpected). This seems like a very fun game, doesn't it? Well, if by "fun" you actually mean "insanely retarded," then sure. [Again, same goes for the wave. Is your life so ridiculously bland that you derive pleasure from being part of a large group of people that makes a game out of standing up in succession?]

A while ago, I vowed to myself (and my brother, who also goes to Dodger games to -- surprise -- watch the games) that if a beach ball ever landed right in my lap, I'd pop it. To repeat: I'm here to watch a baseball game. I don't want to deal with flying beach balls. Why sit there, trying to see the field over the heads of people standing up to reach the ricocheting beach ball, just to wait for the usher to catch it?

So tonight we were sitting just a few rows off the field, right behind third base. Serious foul ball territory. It was a great game. The Dodgers and Reds were see-sawing back and forth for a while. Some idiot pulls out a beach ball. Some other idiots encourage their small children to take their eyes off the game -- remember, the field is 25 feet away and hard objects are flying around at 100 mph -- so that they can watch the beach ball and hit it if it comes their way. (In my opinion, this is nothing short of child endangerment.)

Next thing I know, the beach ball is in my lap. Conveniently, I'm holding a pen. I'd rehearsed this moment in my head hundreds of times.

I raised my arm, pen poised in my hand. I brought it down hard on the beach ball. The pen punctured the soft plastic, and the ball deflated.

People booed. I ignored them. I watched the game. Ari, Noam, and Jaimie stared at me, mouths agape. I was the official bad guy of the section.

I smiled on the inside. People quickly forgot about the beach ball and went back to watching the game, talking with their friend, reading the ads pasted on every spare surface of the stadium ("Steve Garvey says 'Don't go bald! Get plugs!'"), or whatever. I was a hero to crotchety baseball-loving Dodger fans everywhere.

There was a dad sitting next to me with his three-year-old (or so) son on his lap. A minute or two after my moment of beach ball deflation glory, he was still struggling to comprehend.

"Daddy, I want to hit the beach ball," he said softly.

"I'm sorry. You can't hit the beach ball. That man popped the ball."

"Why did he pop the ball?"

"I don't know."

"But I wanted to hit the ball," he said, quietly and mournfully.

"Well, there's no ball anymore. That man popped it."

Am I evil or what?

July 07, 2005

The Day the Baseball Died

I just want to point out the ridiculousness of the Olympics.

In 2012, synchronized diving will be an Olympic sport. So will rhythmic gymnastics and ping pong (fine, call it table tennis... it's still ridiculous).

But baseball and softball will not be Olympic sports in 2012.

I'm doing something about this. I will not hum the Olympic anthem until the IOC votes to return baseball and softball to the docket. Do you hear me Jacques Rogge, you frog-eating, rhythmic gymnastic-watching America hater? I'm putting my foot down, my friend.